| 摘要: |
| 目的 旨在基于超声参数和妊娠期高血压疾病建立对低体重儿结局的预测模型。 方法 采用回顾性研究方法,纳入武汉市中心医院2019年1月至2021年12月的223例孕妇样本的临床及超声检查数据,进行单因素及多因素回归分析筛选预测因子,采用 Logistic 回归构建预测模型。Boostrap重抽样法进行内部验证,利用 C 统计量、 Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验、校准度图和DCA曲线评估模型,利用列线图进行模型呈现。 结果 223例有效样本中,妊高症孕妇 102例(45.7%),正常孕妇 121例(54.3%),低体重儿39 例(16.7%)。最终纳入预测模型的变量有妊高症、晚孕期系统超声检查胎儿体重、孕期32周后常规超声检查脐动脉S/D。该模型具有良好的区分度和校准度,C 统计量为0.852(95% CI：0.789～ 0.914),Hosmer-Lemeshow 检验 P=0.788。 结论 我们利用孕妇临床检查数据结合超声参数建立了一个预测模型对低体重儿妊娠结局进行预测,该模型有较高的准确性,可指导不良妊娠结局的早期干预,具有一定的临床应用价值。 |
| 关键词: 低体重儿 妊高症 超声参数 预测模型 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2022-10-11修订日期：2022-10-28 |
| 基金项目: |
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| Prediction model of low birth weight infant outcome based on ultrasound parameters and pregnancy-induced-hypertension |
| Yao Yu,Liu Yang,Feng Mei,Liu Jianxin |
| (The Central Hospital of Wuhan,Tongji Medical College,Huazhong University of Science and Technology: Wuhan,Hubei Province：430014) |
| Abstract: |
| Objective To establish a predictive model for the outcome of low birth weight infants based on ultrasound parameters and pregnancy-induced-hypertension. Methods A retrospective study was conducted to include clinical and ultrasound examination data from a sample of 223 pregnant women from January 2019 to December 2021 at Wuhan Central Hospital, and single- and multi-factor regression analyses were performed to screen predictors, and logistic regression was used to construct the prediction model. Bootstrap resampling was used for internal validation, and C statistics, Hosmer?Lemeshow test, and DCA curves were used to evaluate the model, and nomogram were used for model presentation. Results Of the 223 valid samples, 102 (45.7%) were pregnant women with pregnancy-induced-hypertension, 121 (54.3%) were normal, and 39 (16.7%) were low birth weight infants. The variables that were finally included in the prediction model were: presence of pregnancy-induced-hypertension, fetal weight on late pregnancy systemic ultrasound, and S/D of the umbilical artery on routine ultrasound after 32 weeks of gestation. the model had good discrimination and calibration with a C-statistic of 0.852 (95% CI: 0.789~0.914) and Hosmer?Lemeshow test P=0.788. Conclusions We developed a predictive model for predicting the outcome of low birth weight infants using clinical examination data of pregnant women combined with ultrasound parameters. The model has high accuracy and can guide early intervention for adverse pregnancy outcomes and has certain clinical application. |
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