Abstract:Objective To explore the establishment of nomogram model for predicting the risk of rebleeding after treatment of esophagogastric varices (EGV) based on endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and clinical data.Method A retrospective analysis was performed on 186 patients with EGV admitted from January 2020 to December 2022, who were divided into bleeding group (102 cases) and non-bleeding group (84 cases) according to the bleeding status after treatment. EUS parameters and clinical data of patients in the two groups were collected. Univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of rebleeding after EGV treatment, and the risk prediction model was constructed. The predictive value of the model was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve).Result Multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that red sign, ascites, CTP score, para-EVC diameter and azygos vein diameter were independent risk factors for rebleeding after EGV treatment (P<0.05). The AUC of the risk prediction model constructed based on the above five indexes was 0.974, and the sensitivity and specificity were 93.1% and 98.8%, which were higher than each single index in the model, and the degree of fitting of the risk prediction model was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow x2=7.303, P=0.504).Conclusion Red sign, ascites, CTP score, para-EVC diameter and azygos vein diameter were independent predicters of rebleeding after EGV treatment. The risk prediction model built based on the above five indicators had high predictive value for rebleeding after EGV treatment, and could provide theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of rebleeding after EGV treatment.