| 摘要: |
| 目的 探讨基于超声内镜(EUS)及临床数据预测食管胃底静脉曲张(EGV)治疗后再出血风险的列线图模型建立。方法 回顾性分析2020年1月~2022年12月收治的186例EGV患者,根据治疗后出血情况分为出血组(102例)、未出血组(84例),收集两组患者EUS参数及临床数据资料,采用单因素分析、多因素Logistic回归分析EGV治疗后再出血的影响因素,并构建风险预测模型,采用受试者工作特征曲线(ROC曲线)分析该模型的预测价值。结果 多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,红色征、腹水、CTP评分、para-EVC直径、奇静脉直径为EGV治疗后再出血的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。基于以上5个指标构建的风险预测模型的AUC为0.974,敏感度、特异度为93.1%、98.8%,均高于模型中各单项指标,且该风险预测模型拟合程度较好(Hosmer-Lemeshow x2=7.303,P=0.504)。结论 红色征、腹水、CTP评分、para-EVC直径、奇静脉直径为EGV治疗后再出血的独立预测因素,基于以上5个指标构建的风险预测模型对EGV治疗后再出血具有较高预测价值,能为EGV治疗后再出血防治提供理论依据。 |
| 关键词: 超声内镜 临床数据 食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血 风险预测 列线图模型 |
| DOI： |
| 投稿时间：2023-05-10修订日期：2023-07-20 |
| 基金项目:承德市科学技术研究与发展计划项目（项目编号 : 202002A012） |
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| Establishment of nomogram model for predicting the risk of rebleeding after treatment of esophageal and gastric varices based on endoscopic ultrasonography and clinical data |
| haoxin,liuxiaoshuang,liuwei,qijing,sunzhixin,lijianhui |
| () |
| Abstract: |
| Objective To explore the establishment of nomogram model for predicting the risk of rebleeding after treatment of esophagogastric varices (EGV) based on endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) and clinical data.Method A retrospective analysis was performed on 186 patients with EGV admitted from January 2020 to December 2022, who were divided into bleeding group (102 cases) and non-bleeding group (84 cases) according to the bleeding status after treatment. EUS parameters and clinical data of patients in the two groups were collected. Univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression were used to analyze the influencing factors of rebleeding after EGV treatment, and the risk prediction model was constructed. The predictive value of the model was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve).Result Multiple Logistic regression analysis showed that red sign, ascites, CTP score, para-EVC diameter and azygos vein diameter were independent risk factors for rebleeding after EGV treatment (P<0.05). The AUC of the risk prediction model constructed based on the above five indexes was 0.974, and the sensitivity and specificity were 93.1% and 98.8%, which were higher than each single index in the model, and the degree of fitting of the risk prediction model was good (Hosmer-Lemeshow x2=7.303, P=0.504).Conclusion Red sign, ascites, CTP score, para-EVC diameter and azygos vein diameter were independent predicters of rebleeding after EGV treatment. The risk prediction model built based on the above five indicators had high predictive value for rebleeding after EGV treatment, and could provide theoretical basis for the prevention and treatment of rebleeding after EGV treatment. |
| Key words: Endoscopic ultrasonography Clinical data Esophageal and gastric varices rupture and hemorrhage Risk prediction Nomogram model |
