ABSTRACT Objective To study the therapeutic effect of ultrasound-guided microwave ablation on liver metastasis of pancreatic cancer，and establish a combined model to select the beneficiaries.Methods 41 patients with liver metastasis of pancreatic cancer who received microwave ablation in PLA General Hospital were collected.The primary lesions of the patients were moderately-poorly differentiated pancreatic cancer，and the metastatic lesions of the liver were ablated completely. COX regression analysis of independent influencing factors to establish a nomogram model，and draw calibration curves and decision curves to evaluate the performance of the model. The high-risk group and low-risk group were divided using the Jordan index as the threshold，and the difference of survival between the two groups was compared.Results The median survival time of 41 patients was 12 months，with 15 months in low-risk group and 7 months in high-risk group.COX analysis showed that CA125(P=0.012） and Comprehensive size（the product of total size and maximum size）（P=0.021） were independent risk factors for poor prognosis.The consistency index of the line chart model is 0.761.The Jordan index of the model score was 33，and the risk ratio between the high-risk group and the low-risk group was 9.03，with a significant difference（P=0.046）.Conclusion Patients with pancreatic cancer liver metastasis in the low-risk group had significantly longer survival time after microwave ablation therapy, and significant clinical benefits could be obtained.