基于超声影像组学的联合模型预测冷冻胚胎移植后妊娠结局的临床价值
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舟山市妇女儿童医院

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Clinical value of a combined model based on ultrasound radiomics for predicting pregnancy outcomes after frozen embryo transfer
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    摘要:

    目的 研究基于内膜转化日超声参数构建列线图模型对冷冻胚胎移植对妊娠结局的预测价值。方法 选取2021年1月至2023年7月于我院拟行冷冻胚胎移植的78例患者作为研究对象,所有患者在子宫内膜转化日均进行阴道超声检查,观察子宫内膜分型,厚度,内膜容积,内膜下区域血流指数(FI)、血管化指数(VI)、血管化血流指数(VFI),子宫动脉阻力指数(RI)、搏动指数(PI)、子宫动脉血流收缩期峰值流速/舒张末期流速(S/D)。将所有患者按妊娠与否分为妊娠(+)组和妊娠(-)组,比较两组患者临床特征及超声参数,并对其进行多因素Logistic回归分析,并提取筛选影像组学特征,构建列线图模型并预测其诊断效能。结果:妊娠(+)组和妊娠(-)组患者的年龄、不孕类型、基础FSH、胚胎类型等临床及超声参数比较有统计学差异(P<0.05)。根据上述对临床及超声参数的比较发现,冷冻胚胎移植周期妊娠结局的影响因素为年龄、不孕类型、基础FSH、胚胎类型等临床参数。将以上影响因素均按年龄(<35、≥35)、不孕类型(原发不孕、继发不孕)、基础FSH(<10、≥10)、胚胎类型(卵裂胚、囊胚)分类,妊娠率高的影响因素为年龄<35岁、原发不孕、基础FSH≥10mIU/ml、胚胎为囊胚。基于以上因素建立预测模型。对影像组学特征中可重复性强的进行进一步优化精简,最终获取9个影像组学最佳特征。验证集中妊娠(+)患者的Rad-score得分明显高于妊娠(-)患者(0.36 vs.-0.15,P=0.007),训练集中妊娠(+)患者的Rad-score得分明显高于妊娠(-)患者(0.32 vs.0.04,P<0.001)。Rad-score评估妊娠与否的截断值为0.18。ROC曲线分析结果显示,在验证集中,Rad-score妊娠预测的AUC为0.76,95%CI为0.56~0.93,特异度为0.76,灵敏度为0.66,阴性预测值为0.66,阳性预测值0.82.在训练集中,Rad-score妊娠预测的AUC为0.73,95% CI为0.62~0.82,特异度为0.61,灵敏度为0.76,阴性预测值为0.66,阳性预测值为0.72.综合上述的多因素分析,确定独立临床因素为不孕类型、年龄、胚胎类型和基础FSH,将其与影像组学标签进行多因素回归分析后,结果显示,独立预测因素为年龄、胚胎类型和影像组学标签,并构建该临床-超声影像组学联合预测模型。验证集和训练集的临床特征、影像组学标签和列线图联合预测模型的ROC曲线显示列线图联合预测模型具有较好的预测效能。在验证集中,临床特征模型ROC曲线下面积为0.60,而列线图联合预测模型为0.81;在训练集中,临床特征模型ROC曲线下面积为0.66,而列线图联合预测模型为0.82.在验证集和训练集中列线图预测模型对妊娠观测值及预测值在校正曲线上显示均存在较好的一致性,采用决策曲线分析列线图预测模型的临床应用效能,结果显示在0.13-0.72这个妊娠预测概率范围内,对冷冻胚胎移植周期妊娠率采用列线图预测模型进行预测比单纯临床特征模型净获益更好。结论:基于超声影像组学构建列线图预测模型可在胚胎移植前对内膜转化日的子宫内膜进行超声图像影像组学分析,进行妊娠率预测,从而制定个性化胚胎移植方案,从而提高辅助生殖技术的妊娠结局。

    Abstract:

    Objective :To construct a nomogram model for predicting pregnancy outcomes of frozen-thawed embryo transfer based on ultrasound parameters on the day of endometrial transformation. Methods :78 patients who planned to undergo frozen embryo transfer in our hospital from January 2021 to July 2023 were selected as the research objects. All patients underwent vaginal ultrasound examination on the day of endometrial transformation, and the endometrial classification, thickness, endometrial volume, subendometrial area flow index (FI), vascularization index (VI), and vascularization flow index (VFI) were observed. Uterine artery resistance index (RI), pulsatility index (PI), uterine artery blood flow peak systolic velocity/end diastolic velocity (S/D). All patients were divided into pregnancy (+) group and pregnancy (-) group according to pregnancy status. The clinical characteristics and ultrasound parameters of the two groups were compared, and multivariate Logistic regression analysis was performed. Radiomics features were extracted and screened to construct a nomogram model and predict its diagnostic efficacy.Results : There were significant differences in clinical and ultrasound parameters such as age, infertility type, basal FSH and embryo type between the pregnancy (+) group and the pregnancy (-) group (P < 0.05). According to the above comparison of clinical and ultrasound parameters, it was found that the influencing factors of pregnancy outcome of frozen embryo transfer cycle were age, infertility type, basal FSH, embryo type and other clinical parameters. The influencing factors were classified according to age (< 35, ≥35), type of infertility (primary infertility, secondary infertility), basal FSH (< 10, ≥10), and type of embryo (cleavage embryo, blastocyst). The influencing factors for high pregnancy rate were age < 35 years, primary infertility, basal FSH≥10 miU /ml, and blastocyst. The prediction model was established based on the above factors. The radiomics features with strong repeatability were further optimized and streamlined, and the 9 best radiomics features were finally obtained. The Rad-score of patients with (+) pregnancy in the validation set was significantly higher than that of patients with (-) pregnancy (0.36 vs.-0.15, P=0.007). The Rad-score of patients with (+) pregnancy in the training set was significantly higher than that of patients with (-) pregnancy (0.32 vs.0.04, P < 0.001). The cut-off value of Rad-score for evaluating pregnancy was 0.18. ROC curve analysis showed that in the validation cohort, the Rad-score had an AUC of 0.76 (95%CI: 0.56-0.93), a specificity of 0.76, a sensitivity of 0.66, a negative predictive value of 0.66, and a positive predictive value of 0.82. In the training set, the Rad-score had an AUC of 0.73 (95%CI: 0.62-0.82), a specificity of 0.61, a sensitivity of 0.76, a negative predictive value of 0.66, and a positive predictive value of 0.72. Based on the above multivariate analysis, the independent clinical factors were determined as infertility type, age, embryo type and basal FSH. After multivariate regression analysis with radiomics signature, the results showed that the independent predictors were age, embryo type and radiomics signature, and the clinical-ultrasound radiomics combined prediction model was constructed. The ROC curve of the clinical features, radiomics signature and nomogram combined prediction model in the validation set and training set showed that the nomogram combined prediction model had good prediction efficiency. In the validation cohort, the area under the ROC curve of the clinical feature model was 0.60, while that of the nomogram combined prediction model was 0.81. In the training set, the area under the ROC curve of the clinical feature model was 0.66, while that of the nomogram combined prediction model was 0.82. In the validation set and the training set, the nomogram prediction model showed good consistency on the calibration curve for the observed and predicted pregnancy values. The clinical application efficacy of the nomogram prediction model was analyzed by the decision curve, and the results showed that the pregnancy prediction probability was in the range of 0.13-0.72. The nomogram prediction model has a better net benefit than the clinical characteristics model in predicting the pregnancy rate of frozen-embryo transfer cycle.Conclusion :The nomogram prediction model based on ultrasound radiomics can be used to analyze the endometrium on the endometrial transformation day before embryo transfer, predict the pregnancy rate, and formulate a personalized embryo transfer plan, so as to improve the pregnancy outcome of assisted reproductive technology.

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王琼仨,芦金飞,陈文艳,张丽丽.基于超声影像组学的联合模型预测冷冻胚胎移植后妊娠结局的临床价值[J].临床超声医学杂志,2025,27(4):332-339

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  • 收稿日期:2024-03-20
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-31
  • 录用日期:2024-05-08
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-30
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