超声引导下经皮肾穿刺活检术后出血风险预警模型的临床价值
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1.安徽省滁州市来安家宁医院超声医学科;2.南京医科大学附属南京医院南京市第一医院功能检查科

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Clinical Value of Ultrasound-Guided Percutaneous Renal Biopsy Postoperative Bleeding Risk Warning Model
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1.Department of Ultrasound Medicine,Lai'2.'3.an Jianing Hospital,Chuzhou,Anhui Province;4.Department of Ultrasound,Nanjing First Hospital,Nanjing Medical University,Nanjing,Jiangsu Province

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    摘要:

    目的 探讨超声引导下经皮肾穿刺活检术(PRB)出血影响因素,构建风险预警模型并分析其临床价值。方法 选取于南京医科大学附属南京医院和滁州市来安家宁医院接受肾穿刺活检的72例患者作为建模组,根据是否出血分为出血组(32例)和未出血组(40例),收集患者基线资料、实验室检查和超声检查资料,采用多因素Logistic回归分析筛选PRB术后出血的影响因素,构建风险预警模型。另选取符合纳入标准的64例患者作为验证组,绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评价该模型的预测价值;Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验评估模型的拟合程度;10折交叉法对模型进行内部和外部验证。结果 建模组患者超声皮髓分界、血清肌酐(Scr)、肾小球滤过率(eGFR)、血红蛋白(Hb)、血小板(PLT)、IgA肾病(IgA N)及高血压肾病(HTN)等比较,差异均有统计学意义(均P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,超声皮髓分界不清、Hb<110 g/L、PLT<100×109/L、IgA N及HTN均为PRB术后出血发生的独立危险因素(均P<0.05)。由此建立的风险预警模型在建模组的ROC曲线下面积、灵敏度、特异度分别为0.881、81.25%、92.50%,外部验证组的ROC曲线下面积、灵敏度、特异度分别为0.837、71.87%、90.00%;Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示,该模型在建模组、外部验证组的预测概率与实际概率拟合较好(P=0.6359、0.2094)。结论 本研究构建的风险预警模型对PRB术后出血发生具有较好的预测效能,可为临床高风险人群的筛选和防治提供有价值的参考和评估依据。

    Abstract:

    Objective To explore the influencing factors of bleeding in ultrasound-guided percutaneous renal biopsy (PRB), construct a risk warning model, and analyze its clinical value. Method Seventy-two patients who underwent renal biopsy at Nanjing Hospital Affiliated to Nanjing Medical University and Lai’an Jianing Hospital were selected as the modeling group. They were divided into a bleeding group (32 cases) and a non-bleeding group (40 cases) based on whether they had bleeding. Baseline data, laboratory tests, and ultrasound examination data were collected from patients, and multiple logistic regression analysis was used to screen the influencing factors of postoperative bleeding in PRB, and a risk warning model was constructed. Another 64 patients who met the inclusion criteria were selected as the external validation group, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was plotted to evaluate the predictive value of the model. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test evaluates the degree of fit of the model.Perform internal and external validation of the model using the 10-fold cross validation method. Result The patients in the model group were compared for factors in terms of ultrasound skin pulp boundary,serum creatinine(Scr),glomerular filtration rate(eGFR),hemoglobin(Hb),platelets(PLT),IgA nephropathy(IgA N) and hypertensive nephropathy injury(HTN),and the differences were statistically significant(all P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the ultrasound skin pulp boundary was unclear,Hb<110 g/L,PLT<100×109/L,IgA N and HTN are risk factors for postoperative bleeding in PRB(all P<0.05).The area under the curve of the PRB postoperative bleeding risk prediction model group is 0.881,sensitivity is 81.25%,and specificity is 92.50%.The area under the curve of the external validation group is 0.837,sensitivity is 71.87%,and specificity is 90.00%.The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed that the model had a good fit between the predicted probability and the actual probability in the modeling group and external validation group (P=0.6359, 0.2094). Conclusion The risk warning model constructed in this study has good predictive performance for postoperative bleeding in PRB, and can provide valuable reference and evaluation basis for the screening and prevention of high-risk populations in clinical practice.

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贺然,郝祥玉,卢晓莉△.超声引导下经皮肾穿刺活检术后出血风险预警模型的临床价值[J].临床超声医学杂志,2024,26(10):

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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-08
  • 最后修改日期:2024-09-06
  • 录用日期:2024-07-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-11-01
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