基于二维超声特征的预测模型及评分系统诊断早期子宫内膜癌的临床价值
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新疆医科大学第一附属医院妇产超声诊断科

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] 新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学(项目编号:2022D01A142)


Establishment and verification of diagnostic model and scoring system for early endometrial carcinoma based on two-dimensional ultrasound characteristics
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Xinjiang Key Laboratory of Ultrasound Medicine,Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University

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    目的 基于二维超声构建早期子宫内膜癌的Logistic回归模型及评分系统,探讨其临床应用价值。资料与方法 选取我院经手术病理证实的子宫内膜病变患者475例,按7:3随机分为训练集(333例)和验证集(142例),依据病理分为良性组和早期恶性组,术前均行二维超声检查,比较两组二维超声、血清学肿瘤标志物及临床指标的差异。应用二元Logistic回归分析筛选子宫内膜病变患者发生早期恶变的独立影响因素,并构建Logistic回归模型及评分系统进一步行内部验证。绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析模型及评分系统的区分能力,霍斯默-莱梅肖(H-L)试验评估模型的校准能力,ROC曲线分析比较采用U检验。结果 二元Logistic回归分析显示:阴道流血、绝经、内膜增厚、宫腔积液、内膜与肌层分界不清、富血供是早期子宫内膜癌独立危险因素(P<0.05)。基于以上6个指标构建模型及评分系统,模型ROC曲线分析显示AUC为0.935(95%CI 0.903-0.966),模型校准能力良好(P=0.868>0.05);评分系统ROC曲线分析显示AUC为0.914,(95%CI 0.874-0.954);以总分2.5分为诊断界值,其诊断灵敏度79.76%、特异度91.57%。模型及评分系统在训练集与验证集鉴别诊断效能相似(P=0.256、P=0.481)。评分系统能够替代模型预测评估子宫内膜病变患者发生早期EC的风险(P=0.062)。结论 基于二维超声构建的Logistic回归模型及评分系统预测子宫内膜病变患者发生早期恶变具有较好的临床应用价值。

    Abstract:

    Objective To construct Logistic regression model and score system of early endometrial carcinoma based on two-dimensional ultrasound, and to discuss its clinical application value.Data and Methods 475 patients with endometrial lesions confirmed by surgery and pathology in our hospital were randomly divided into a training set (333 cases) and a verification set (142 cases) according to 7:3, and were divided into a benign group and an early malignant group according to pathology. Two-dimensional ultrasound examination was performed before surgery to compare the differences in two-dimensional ultrasound, serological tumor markers and clinical indicators between the two groups.Binary Logistic regression analysis was used to screen the independent influencing factors of early malignant transformation in patients with endometrial lesions, and the Logistic regression model and scoring system were constructed for further internal verification.The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to analyze the model and the distinguishing ability of the scoring system. The calibration ability of the model was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshaw (H-L) test. The U-test was used for ROC curve analysis and comparison.Results Binary Logistic regression analysis showed that vaginal bleeding, menopause, endometrial thickening, uterine effusion, unclear boundary between endometrium and muscle, and rich blood supply were independent risk factors for early endometrial cancer (P < 0.05).The model and scoring system were constructed based on the above six indexes. The ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC was 0.935 (95%CI0.903-0.966), indicating good calibration ability (P=0.868>0.05).ROC curve analysis of the scoring system showed that the AUC was 0.914 (95%CI0.874-0.954).The diagnostic sensitivity and specificity were 79.76% and 91.57%, respectively, with a total score of 2.5.The differential diagnosis efficiency of the model and the scoring system was similar in the training set and the verification set (P = 0.256, P = 0.481).The scoring system could replace the model to predict the risk of early EC in patients with endometrial disease (P=0.062).Conclusion Logistic regression model and scoring system based on two-dimensional ultrasound have good clinical value in predicting early malignant transformation in patients with endometrial disease.

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姜鑫,周慧丽.基于二维超声特征的预测模型及评分系统诊断早期子宫内膜癌的临床价值[J].临床超声医学杂志,2025,27(1):53-58

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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-18
  • 最后修改日期:2024-12-23
  • 录用日期:2024-07-08
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-07
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