基于超声参数构建列线图预测模型对围绝经期子宫内膜息肉样改变的恶性病变诊断效能研究
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西北妇女儿童医院

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Study on the Diagnostic Efficacy of a Nomogram Prediction Model Based on Ultrasound Parameters for Malignant Changes in Perimenopausal Endometrial Polypoid Changes
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    摘要:

    目的:研究基于超声参数构建列线图预测模型对围绝经期子宫内膜恶性病变的诊断效能。方法:选取2021年8月至2023年12月于我院就诊的637例拟行宫腔镜检查的患者作为研究对象,所有患者均经宫腔镜检查,并进行病理诊断,根据病理诊断结果分为内膜良性病变组(n=567)和内膜恶性病变组(n=70)。比较两组患者的一般资料、盆腔超声、实验室相关指标等,采用单因素分析和多因素分析筛选出各指标中有统计学差异的指标,后构建列线图模型,并对其进行诊断效能评价。结果:两组患者的年龄、BMI、功能性子宫出血、绝经后阴道流血、月经稀发、月经周期、绝经、高血压、乳腺增生症、宫颈息肉、盆腔炎性疾病、CA125、空腹血糖、甘油三酯、病变体积、回声情况、血流信号、内膜厚度及内膜PI等影响因素均有统计学差异(P<0.05)。筛选出有统计学差异的因素后进行验证集中的LASSO回归筛选及多因素Logistic回归分析,最终显示年龄、BMI、甘油三酯、病变血流信号、内膜PI和内膜厚度等有统计学意义(P<0.05)。在训练集中构建列线图模型,预测模型的指标是模型的校准度和区分度,对该模型在训练集中进行1000次Bootstrap自抽样内部验证后,显示校准度良好(Brier=0.077),区分度良好(一致性统计量=0.794);当预测风险值>0.45时,校准度较高,当风险值>0.2时,风险值被低估,当风险值在(0.05-0.2)内,则风险值被高估。在验证集中进行1000次Bootstrap自抽样内部验证后,显示校准度良好(Brier=0.077),区分度良好(一致性统计量=0.767);当预测风险值在>0.45时,校准度较高,当风险值在(0.25-0.80)内,则风险值被低估,阴性预测功能较好,当风险值在(0.05-0.25)时,则风险值被高估。模型在不同决策阈值概率下从净获益指标上通过DCA进行临床应用价值评价。通过绘制不同模型(超声结合临床综合预测模型vs.超声单纯预测模型)DCA曲线后发现,在决策阈值概率在(0-0.75)区间内,综合预测模型的临床应用价值更高,接着用列线图进行风险分层,绘制临床影响曲线,显示当决策阈值概率>0.2时,则预测模型大致接近真实概率。结论:经单因素和多因素分析显示,年龄、BMI、甘油三酯、病变血流信号、内膜PI和内膜厚度为围绝经期内膜病变恶变的高危因素,并据此构建基于超声参数的围绝经期子宫内膜恶性病变预测综合列线图,具有较高的准确性,有较好的校准度和区分度,可为内膜病变患者制定最佳效益-风险的个体化后续治疗方案提出指导意见。

    Abstract:

    Objective: To investigate the diagnostic efficacy of a nomogram prediction model constructed based on ultrasound parameters for malignant lesions of the endometrium in perimenopausal women. Methods: A total of 637 patients who underwent hysteroscopic examination from August 2021 to December 2023 at our hospital were selected as the study subjects. All patients underwent hysteroscopic examination and pathological diagnosis, and were divided into two groups based on the pathological results ,benign endometrial lesion group (n=567) and malignant endometrial lesion group (n=70). The general data, pelvic ultrasound, and laboratory indicators of the two groups were compared. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to select indicators with statistical differences, and a nomogram model was constructed and evaluated for diagnostic efficacy. Results: There were statistical differences in age, BMI, functional uterine bleeding, postmenopausal vaginal bleeding, oligomenorrhea, menstrual cycle, menopause, hypertension, breast hyperplasia, cervical polyps, pelvic inflammatory disease, CA125, fasting blood sugar, triglycerides, lesion volume, echogenicity, blood flow signal, endometrial thickness, and endometrial PI, etc., between the two groups (P<0.05). After selecting factors with statistical differences, LASSO regression and multivariate Logistic regression analysis were performed in the validation set, and it was ultimately shown that age, BMI, triglycerides, lesion blood flow signal, endometrial PI, and endometrial thickness, etc., had statistical significance (P<0.05). A nomogram model was constructed in the training set, and the predictive model"s indicators were the model"s calibration and discrimination. After 1000 times of Bootstrap resampling internal validation in the training set, the calibration was good (Brier=0.077), and the discrimination was good (C-statistic=0.794); when the predicted risk value >0.45, the calibration was high, when the risk value >0.2, the risk value was underestimated, and when the risk value was between (0.05-0.2), the risk value was overestimated. After 1000 times of Bootstrap resampling internal validation in the validation set, the calibration was good (Brier=0.077), and the discrimination was good (C-statistic=0.767); when the predicted risk value >0.45, the calibration was high, when the risk value was between (0.25-0.80), the risk value was underestimated, the negative predictive function was good, and when the risk value was between (0.05-0.25), the risk value was overestimated. The clinical application value of the model at different decision threshold probabilities was evaluated through DCA from the net benefit indicator. After drawing the DCA curves of different models (ultrasound combined with clinical comprehensive prediction model vs. ultrasound-only prediction model), it was found that within the decision threshold probability interval of (0-0.75), the clinical application value of the comprehensive prediction model was higher. Then, the risk stratification was carried out using the nomogram, and the clinical impact curve was drawn, showing that when the decision threshold probability >0.2, the prediction model was roughly close to the true probability. Conclusion: Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that age, BMI, triglycerides, lesion blood flow signal, endometrial PI, and endometrial thickness are high-risk factors for malignant changes of endometrial lesions in perimenopausal women. Based on this, a comprehensive nomogram for predicting malignant changes of endometrial lesions in perimenopausal women based on ultrasound parameters was constructed, which has high accuracy, good calibration, and discrimination, and can provide guidance for formulating the best benefit-risk individualized follow-up treatment plans for patients with endometrial lesions.

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王梦瑶.基于超声参数构建列线图预测模型对围绝经期子宫内膜息肉样改变的恶性病变诊断效能研究[J].临床超声医学杂志,2025,27(6):

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-02
  • 最后修改日期:2024-09-20
  • 录用日期:2024-10-10
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-30
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